KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Country level performance continues to be positive and grow across all 3 countries.
- All countries and loan grades are yielding above 10%.
- Estonia sees steady and growing rates across credit grades. What this means is that the higher rate credit grades like E, F, and HR have a strong repayment history. Their rates overall stay higher than the lower rate grades like A and B due to lack of defaults.
- Spain is exceeding targeted rates across the board.
- Finland has double digit interest rates across all grades.
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS BY GRADE AND COUNTRY
ESTONIA:
- Estonia sees double digit realized rates across the board.
- Even the A and AA grades earn 11.68% and 12.53%.
- There is lots of competition to fund Estonia loans at these rates so you need to invest wisely to be sure you are putting your money to work.
- The highest realized rate is HR at 35.6%.
- Estonia consistently exceeds its targeted rates at all credit grades.
 Estonia |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | ALL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 14,98% | 14,03% | 16,88% | 20,05% | 23,62% | 27,67% | 29,66% | 25,81% | 20,82% |
| Target | 12,98% | 13,82% | 14,30% | 15,74% | 18,51% | 20,34% | 23,14% | 23,46% | 16,88% | |
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 14,97% | 10,08% | 16,25% | 18,07% | 25,14% | 21,99% | 35,87% | 26,16% | 19,92% |
| Target | 13,11% | 13,83% | 14,26% | 15,96% | 18,47% | 20,49% | 23,06% | 23,62% | 16,81% | |
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 15,02% | 15,77% | 16,90% | 20,66% | 22,19% | 29,93% | 34,14% | 34,87% | 22,38% |
| Target | 13,09% | 13,84% | 14,27% | 15,85% | 18,39% | 20,32% | 23,15% | 23,85% | 17,21% | |
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 14,01% | 15,43% | 16,00% | 20,40% | 23,32% | 22,87% | 30,05% | 39,07% | 21,94% |
| Target | 12,20% | 13,17% | 13,81% | 15,50% | 17,59% | 18,41% | 21,29% | 20,83% | 16,65% | |
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 11,68% | 12,53% | 14,92% | 19,45% | 24,41% | 28,57% | 29,66% | 35,60% | 22,85% |
| Target | 10,62% | 11,32% | 12,09% | 14,38% | 16,18% | 17,51% | 18,28% | 17,96% | 15,48% | |
FINLAND:
- Finland exceeded targets across all credit grades as well.
- While HR exceeded its target, that is the only rate where defaults are meaningful in lowering returns for investors, while still earning 17.29%.
- HR’s 17.29% is equal to owning a mix of C and D credit grade loans from Finland.
- After some previous quarters with realized rates that were positive but fell short of the targeted rates, this quarter every grade exceeded its target.
 Finland |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | ALL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 11,51% | 10,07% | 12,64% | 16,58% | 24,17% | 45,25% | 14,20% | ||
| Target | 12,88% | 13,33% | 14,41% | 16,58% | 17,98% | 20,90% | 14,86% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 7,24% | 13,72% | 15,16% | 13,92% | 10,23% | 17,63% | 13,67% | ||
| Target | 12,88% | 13,31% | 14,70% | 16,62% | 18,04% | 21,04% | 15,41% | |||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 10,95% | 12,73% | 16,41% | 18,35% | 11,04% | 24,47% | 15,97% | ||
| Target | 12,90% | 13,28% | 14,71% | 16,49% | 18,54% | 20,81% | 15,62% | |||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 3,09% | 11,38% | 19,07% | 17,16% | 13,61% | 26,52% | 16,56% | ||
| Target | 12,89% | 12,80% | 14,49% | 16,02% | 16,86% | 18,11% | 15,23% | |||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 14,35% | 15,48% | 21,07% | 26,23% | 25,67% | 17,29% | 22,62% | ||
| Target | 9,87% | 11,22% | 12,56% | 13,44% | 14,24% | 14,40% | 13,21% | |||
SPAIN:
- Spain has loans available in 3 credit grades: E, F and HR.
- Targeted rates are in the teens from 13.83% up to 14.61%.
- Actual realized rates are between 27% and 33%.
- The loan book is growing and becoming more profitable in Spain.
- As mentioned in our recovery post, we are starting to use the legal process more in Spain to help with recoveries and this is starting to help with returns for our lenders. We hope this continues.
 Spain |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | ALL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | -0,53% | -5,99% | -5,03% | 10,09% | 16,91% | 16,20% | 11,68% | ||
| Target | 12,61% | 12,85% | 14,39% | 16,17% | 18,32% | 20,33% | 17,69% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | -10,10% | -6,76% | 9,82% | 17,82% | 18,52% | 11,45% | |||
| Target | 12,80% | 12,80% | 14,36% | 16,29% | 18,32% | 20,31% | 17,56% | |||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 17,61% | -8,94% | 12,76% | 18,08% | 11,73% | 11,85% | |||
| Target | 13,01% | 14,74% | 16,20% | 18,32% | 20,31% | 17,56% | ||||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 20,16% | -4,05% | 11,81% | 22,16% | 18,30% | 15,14% | |||
| Target | 13,41% | 14,93% | 16,22% | 17,85% | 18,06% | 17,07% | ||||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 33,10% | 31,30% | 27,68% | 28,34% | |||||
| Target | 14,61% | 14,58% | 13,93% | 14,05% | ||||||
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS ACROSS PORTFOLIO PER QUARTER
The returns are largely in-line with expectations and no substantial changes are expected on the total portfolio level.
| 2015-Q1 | 2015-Q2 | 2015-Q3 | 2015-Q4 | 2016-Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 16,52% | 15,88% | 17,54% | 19,02% | 23,55% |
| Target | 16,34% | 16,33% | 16,63% | 16,28% | 14,66% |
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS ACROSS PREVIOUS 7 YEARS
Although the performance numbers decreased very slightly in the past month, the overall performance over the past 7 years and across all markets stayed basically the same, still beating the rest of the market.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Target |
| EE | 16.39% | 29.23% | 23.81% | 22.92% | 22.27% | 22.50% | 21.10% | 16.88% |
| ES | -6.07% | -0.75% | 12.17% | 17.50% | ||||
| FI | 12.00% | 12.13% | 14.76% | 15.30% | ||||
| SK | -5.22% | |||||||
| ALL | 16.39% | 29.23% | 23.81% | 22.92% | 19.95% | 13.71% | 16.95% | 16.40% |
DISCLAIMER
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results as economic environment, competition, performance of risk models, loan pricing and recovery processes can improve or deteriorate over time.
We do not recommend to set unrealistic expectations although 84.2% of investors on Bondora peer-to-peer lending marketplace have earned more than 10% annually (investors who have invested more than 1,000 euro over a period of 12+ months). Investing on Bondora is not suitable in case you expect to invest less than 1,000 euro as proper risk diversification shall not be achieved and returns can be highly volatile.
PS! In case you are looking for technical details on the net return calculation then please read an earlier article on the subject here.
