KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The total realized net returns in Q2 of 2016 exceeded the metric in all four quarters of 2015.
- The realized net return of Estonia, Finland and Spain all far outpaced the performance of the S&P 500 (US). The total realized net return for these three countries was 23.48% and 19.46% in Q1 and Q2 respectively whereas the S&P 500 returned only 2.9% and 1.4% in the first and second quarter.
- Both Finland and Estonia exceeded their targeted returns by 4.11% and 5.00% respectively.
- Spain leads the group in cumulative realized returns so far in 2016.
- The HR rating has yielded the strongest return (31.60%) in the Estonian market whereas the F rating was the strongest return (28.60%) for Spain and E (24.67%) for Finland.
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS BY GRADE AND COUNTRY
ESTONIA:
- Ratings B through HR have delivered substantial double digit returns.
- Every rating except A has exceeded the corresponding target return.
- On average all ratings (excepting A) have yielded 6.67% more than the targeted return.
- The HR rating offered the greatest return (though highest risk) of any rating in not only Estonia but also Finland and Spain.
- The median realized return among all ratings in 2016 Q2 was 18.38%.
 Estonia |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 14,97% | 14,58% | 16,83% | 19,86% | 23,31% | 27,09% | 29,03% | 25,74% |
| Target | 12,98% | 13,82% | 14,30% | 15,74% | 18,51% | 20,34% | 23,14% | 23,46% | |
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 14,87% | 10,79% | 16,13% | 17,90% | 24,89% | 21,70% | 35,15% | 25,13% |
| Target | 13,11% | 13,83% | 14,26% | 15,96% | 18,47% | 20,49% | 23,06% | 23,62% | |
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 15,10% | 15,69% | 16,84% | 20,48% | 21,97% | 30,78% | 33,81% | 33,89% |
| Target | 13,09% | 13,84% | 14,27% | 15,85% | 18,39% | 20,32% | 23,15% | 23,85% | |
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 14,09% | 15,32% | 15,98% | 20,45% | 23,88% | 22,67% | 29,71% | 37,30% |
| Target | 12,20% | 13,17% | 13,81% | 15,50% | 17,59% | 18,41% | 21,29% | 20,83% | |
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 11,63% | 12,47% | 15,10% | 19,36% | 24,54% | 28,34% | 29,79% | 36,19% |
| Target | 10,62% | 11,32% | 12,09% | 14,38% | 16,18% | 17,51% | 18,28% | 17,96% | |
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | 8,72% | 3,51% | 12,81% | 15,46% | 21,30% | 25,18% | 30,71% | 31,60% |
| Target | 8,15% | 9,74% | 11,46% | 13,62% | 15,22% | 16,47% | 17,05% | 17,10% | |
FINLAND:
- Every rating in the Finnish market outperformed the targeted return.
- The E rating generated the highest return with 24.67%.
- The median realized return across all ratings in 2016 Q2 was 18.41%.
- The B rating offered reasonable risk mitigation while also bringing a return of 14.83%.
 Finland |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 11,09% | 9,63% | 12,10% | 16,03% | 23,26% | 45,48% | ||
| Target | 12,88% | 13,33% | 14,41% | 16,58% | 17,98% | 20,90% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 6,87% | 13,16% | 14,77% | 13,17% | 9,92% | 16,87% | ||
| Target | 12,88% | 13,31% | 14,70% | 16,62% | 18,04% | 21,04% | |||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 10,50% | 12,12% | 15,70% | 17,88% | 10,30% | 23,22% | ||
| Target | 12,90% | 13,28% | 14,71% | 16,49% | 18,54% | 20,81% | |||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 2,62% | 11,31% | 19,80% | 16,67% | 12,82% | 26,45% | ||
| Target | 12,89% | 12,80% | 14,49% | 16,02% | 16,86% | 18,11% | |||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 14,51% | 15,33% | 20,66% | 26,51% | 25,45% | 18,99% | ||
| Target | 9,87% | 11,22% | 12,56% | 13,44% | 14,24% | 14,40% | |||
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | 14,83% | 19,03% | 17,79% | 24,67% | 24,39% | 14,48% | ||
| Target | 12,07% | 14,05% | 16,17% | 17,55% | 18,27% | 19,19% | |||
SPAIN:
- The F rating experienced a 28.60% return which is higher than any return within the Finnish market and third highest across all the countries served.
- The average return across all ratings was 19.33% which is higher than the same metric for Estonia (18.66%) or Finland (19.20%).
- The greatest difference between returns in Spain in Q2 was 15.13% which positions between Estonia (28.09%) and Finland (10.19%).
- Market conditions have driven the targeted returns in Spain higher than any of the other countries.
 Spain |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | -0,61% | -6,37% | -5,17% | 9,43% | 18,18% | 15,26% | ||
| Target | 12,61% | 12,85% | 14,39% | 16,17% | 18,32% | 20,33% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | -10,46% | -7,17% | 9,01% | 16,71% | 18,05% | |||
| Target | 12,80% | 12,80% | 14,36% | 16,29% | 18,32% | 20,31% | |||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 17,55% | -8,86% | 11,88% | 17,51% | 10,06% | |||
| Target | 13,01% | 14,74% | 16,20% | 18,32% | 20,31% | ||||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 20,27% | -3,11% | 10,84% | 21,35% | 17,46% | |||
| Target | 13,41% | 14,93% | 16,22% | 17,85% | 18,06% | ||||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 34,06% | 31,69% | 26,84% | |||||
| Target | 14,61% | 14,58% | 13,93% | ||||||
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | 13,47% | 28,60% | 15,91% | |||||
| Target | 19,41% | 20,16% | 20,36% | ||||||
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS ACROSS PORTFOLIO PER QUARTER
The realized return continues an established trend of outperforming the targeted figure.
| 2015-Q1 | 2015-Q2 | 2015-Q3 | 2015-Q4 | 2016-Q1 | 2016-Q2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 16,21% | 15,48% | 17,01% | 18,88% | 23,48% | 19,46% |
| Target | 16,34% | 16,33% | 16,63% | 16,28% | 14,66% | 15,64% |
ACTUAL AND TARGETED BONDORA NET RETURNS ACROSS PREVIOUS 7 YEARS
Though some countries experienced slight declines in returns in 2013 and 2014 the totals still represent double digit gains for every one of the last seven years. The average return for 2009-2015 is 19.87%.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Target |
| EE | 16.39% | 29.30% | 23.90% | 23.00% | 22.19% | 22.31% | 20.99% | 16.88% |
| ES | -5.27% | -0.92% | 11.56% | 17.50% | ||||
| FI | 11.91% | 11.78% | 14.28% | 15.30% | ||||
| SK | -5.69% | |||||||
| ALL | 16.39% | 29.30% | 23.90% | 23.00% | 19.89% | 13.47% | 16.61% | 16.40% |
DISCLAIMER
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results as economic environment, competition, performance of risk models, loan pricing and recovery processes can improve or deteriorate over time.
We do not recommend to set unrealistic expectations although 84.2% of investors on Bondora peer-to-peer lending marketplace have earned more than 10% annually (investors who have invested more than 1,000 euro over a period of 12+ months). Investing on Bondora is not suitable in case you expect to invest less than 1,000 euro as proper risk diversification shall not be achieved and returns can be highly volatile.
PS! In case you are looking for technical details on the net return calculation then please read an earlier article on the subject here.
