Key takeaways
- All countries have generated double digit realized net returns for the last three consecutive quarters. Though some of the Q1 2017 figures may decrease over time they’re all very likely to remain well into the double digits.
- As we move from 2015 to the present Estonia, Spain and Finland are all generating returns to a more equal degree. Previously the performance across countries was less balanced.
- The realized net return in each quarter of 2016 was significantly higher than the same quarter in the previous year by a minimum of 321 basis points.
Actual and targeted bondora net returns by grade and country
Estonia
- “AA,” “B” and “F” rated loans have all outperformed their target every quarter since Q1 of 2015 offering investors an excellent range of returns across various risk levels.
- For each of the previous nine quarters more loan ratings have outperformed their target than those that have not.
- Loan ratings “B” through “F” have all returned double digits since Q1 of 2015.
 Estonia |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 14,59% | 13,86% | 15,60% | 18,44% | 20,30% | 23,27% | 24,57% | 23,38% |
| Target | 13,10% | 13,84% | 14,31% | 15,76% | 18,47% | 20,43% | 23,17% | 23,51% | |
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 14,28% | 11,39% | 15,09% | 14,38% | 21.90% | 17,63% | 31,44% | 19,88% |
| Target | 13,20% | 13,82% | 14,29% | 15,89% | 18,40% | 20,46% | 23,08% | 23,65% | |
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 15,50% | 15,14% | 16,11% | 17,70% | 18,34% | 26,84% | 28,25% | 28,17% |
| Target | 13,18% | 13,85% | 14,30% | 15,79% | 18,43% | 20,32% | 23,19% | 23,85% | |
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 13,99% | 15,27% | 15,10% | 19,23% | 20,13% | 14,52% | 23,76% | 27,76% |
| Target | 12,20% | 13,17% | 13,81% | 15,50% | 17,59% | 18,41% | 21,29% | 20,83% | |
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 11,85% | 13,61% | 15,14% | 19,17% | 23,91% | 26,09% | 24,10% | 35,39% |
| Target | 10,62% | 11,32% | 12,09% | 14,38% | 16,17% | 17,51% | 18,28% | 17,96% | |
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | 9,64% | 1,07% | 13,98% | 15,89% | 18,46% | 21,62% | 29,03% | 27,21% |
| Target | 8,15% | 9,74% | 11,46% | 13,62% | 15,22% | 16,47% | 17,05% | 17,10% | |
| 2016 Q3 |
Actual | 9,82% | 12,19% | 11,88% | 14,51% | 18,54% | 22,94% | 25,08% | 28,11% |
| Target | 8,40% | 9,77% | 11,48% | 13,64% | 15,22% | 16,48% | 17,04% | 17,10% | |
| 2016 Q4 |
Actual | 9,27% | 10,37% | 12,20% | 15,77% | 18,75% | 26,46% | 30,35% | |
| Target | 8,21% | 8,61% | 9,61% | 11,10% | 12,47% | 14,09% | 14,94% | ||
| 2017 Q1 |
Actual | 8,64% | 8,41% | 12,23% | 13,94% | 21,40% | 24,95% | 32,06% | |
| Target | 8,35% | 8,61% | 9,61% | 10,79% | 12,70% | 13,99% | 14,71% | ||
Finland
- “C” rated loans in Finland have outperformed the same rating in all other countries for the last four consecutive quarters.
- Also, “C” rated loans are offering a nice risk/reward balance as this mid-level rating has delivered performance above its targeted figure for the last five quarters.
 Finland |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | 8,09% | 6,35% | 7,27% | 10,52% | 18,87% | 41,80% | ||
| Target | 12,87% | 13,33% | 14,50% | 16,61% | 18,15% | 20,82% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | 3,95% | 8,88% | 11,15% | 8,22% | 5,14% | 11,78% | ||
| Target | 12,88% | 13,33% | 14,67% | 16,67% | 18,07% | 20,86% | |||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 1,55% | 8,46% | 11,18% | 14,00% | 6,55% | 17,20% | ||
| Target | 12,90% | 13,30% | 14,70% | 16,58% | 18,36% | 20,81% | |||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 0,96% | 10,86% | 15,36% | 14,23% | 8,68% | 24,81% | ||
| Target | 12,89% | 12,80% | 14,49% | 16,02% | 16,86% | 18,11% | |||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 15,10% | 12,59% | 17,40% | 25,26% | 21,73% | 15,51% | ||
| Target | 9,87% | 11,22% | 12,56% | 13,44% | 14,24% | 14,40% | |||
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | 16,92% | 16,65% | 14,03% | 21,85% | 19,41% | 6,11% | ||
| Target | 12,07% | 14,05% | 16,17% | 17,55% | 18,27% | 19,19% | |||
| 2016 Q3 |
Actual | 8,21% | 17,46% | 15,40% | 13,32% | 13,79% | -2,08% | ||
| Target | 12,45% | 14,34% | 16,37% | 17,89% | 18,91% | 19,19% | |||
| 2016 Q4 |
Actual | -15,40% | 18,30% | 23,98% | 23,85% | 30,85% | 32,06% | ||
| Target | 9,90% | 11,87% | 14,32% | 16,37% | 20,66% | 27,53% | |||
| 2017 Q1 |
Actual | 18,09% | 18,99% | 19,46% | 22,65% | 35,21% | 25,97% | ||
| Target | 11,86% | 11,20% | 13,81% | 15,47% | 18,70% | 23,57% | |||
Spain
- The average excess return above the targeted figure in Spain for the last five quarters was 3.74% which is in between the same measurement for Estonia (5.32%) and Finland (1.84%).
- The “E,” “F,” and “HR” loans all outperformed their targeted figure in the last two consecutive quarters.
- Each loan rating segment in the last three quarters has outperformed the same rating in the previous year’s quarter with the exception of “E” in 2017.” For example, “E” of Q4, 2016 generated a realized net return of 38.66% compared to Q4 of 2015 where this segmented returned only 6.20%. This outperformance is likely to hold even in the coming months.
- “E” and “F” rated loans all outperformed their targeted figure in the last three consecutive quarters.
 Spain |
AA | A | B | C | D | E | F | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 Q1 |
Actual | -6,00% | -8,33% | -6,83% | 5,53% | 10,48% | 8,96% | ||
| Target | 12,62% | 12,90% | 14,33% | 16,21% | 18,32% | 20,24% | |||
| 2015 Q2 |
Actual | -13,72% | -10,31% | 4,44% | 10,84% | 13,13% | |||
| Target | 12,85% | 14,33% | 16,23% | 18,32% | 20,22% | ||||
| 2015 Q3 |
Actual | 15,64% | -6,92% | 6,13% | 11,31% | 3,06% | |||
| Target | 13,11% | 14,55% | 16,18% | 18,32% | 20,31% | ||||
| 2015 Q4 |
Actual | 17,91% | -1,11% | 6,20% | 16,33% | 12,20% | |||
| Target | 13,41% | 14,93% | 16,24% | 17,85% | 18,06% | ||||
| 2016 Q1 |
Actual | 37,26% | 24,79% | 18,72% | |||||
| Target | 14,61% | 14,58% | 13,93% | ||||||
| 2016 Q2 |
Actual | -14,26% | 5,03% | 1,22% | |||||
| Target | 19,41% | 20,16% | 20,36% | ||||||
| 2016 Q3 |
Actual | 30,01% | 26,62% | 10,39% | |||||
| Target | 19,30% | 20,24% | 20,65% | ||||||
| 2016 Q4 |
Actual | 38,66% | 24,41% | 31,02% | |||||
| Target | 16,44% | 17,15% | 27,79% | ||||||
Actual and targeted bondora net returns across portfolio per quarter
The realized net returns in 2016 average 18.92% per quarter compared to a quarterly average of just 13.21% for 2015. Additionally, this increase has occurred without any significant reduction in the variety of loan ratings across each country. In other words, the increase in average quarterly performance does not appear to come at the cost of investors taking on more risk.
| 2015-Q1 | 2015-Q2 | 2015-Q3 | 2015-Q4 | 2016-Q1 | 2016-Q2 | 2016-Q3 | 2016-Q4 | 2017-Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 12,61% | 11,77% | 12,98% | 15,48% | 20,89% | 16,07% | 16,19% | 22,54% | 20,86% |
| Target | 16,56% | 16,52% | 16,79% | 16,28% | 14,66% | 15,64% | 16,38% | 16,41% | 14,84% |
Actual and targeted bondora net returns across previous 8 years
We’re pleased to see an increase in performance relative to a slowdown in total realized net returns in 2013, 2014, and 2015. This downshift came as we increased our exposure to countries beyond Estonia in those same years. A positive trend is building as the total realized net return has increased each consecutive year since 2015. With three more strong quarters in 2017 we should be able to continue the momentum.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Actual | Target | Actual | Target | Actual | Target |
| EE | 16,54% | 29,55% | 24,43% | 23,25% | 21,13% | 20,86% | 18,45% | 17,00% | 11,22% | 13,86% | 16,42% | 11,22% |
| ES | -9,62% | -4,06% | 6,50% | 17,42% | 16,59% | 21,48% | 35,49% | 27,25% | ||||
| FI | 9,56% | 8,74% | 10,19% | 15,50% | 19,15% | 16,85% | 25,98% | 17,68% | ||||
| SK | -9,31% | |||||||||||
| ALL | 16,54% | 29,55% | 24,43% | 23,25% | 18,54% | 11,19% | 12,99% | 16,57% | 18,81% | 15,89% | 20,92% | 14,84% |
